The weak claim is: given a persistence commitment, physics identifies configurations that undermine it.
Then the hop to civilizations names three jobs: keep pumping entropy, defend capital stocks, keep generating complexity.
Those are not persistence. A polity can continue to exist while complexity generation dies. The thesis says choose persistence. Section V is already choosing a thicker system: the complexity-generating one.
If the commitment is the thin one, physics rules out almost nothing on civilizational timescales. If it is the thick one, "choose persistence" is the wrong name for the wager.
Those can be two commitments. Persistence of the bounded system, and persistence of its complexity-generation. Section VII names the second as an adopted objective, the axiological wager.
Then the thesis is the thin commitment and the later sections are the thick one. The Hume move only needs the thin one: if you want the system to continue, some configs undermine that. The wager is extra. It does not have to ride in the same sentence as the guillotine.
Then use only the thin commitment.
Which configuration on this page does physics rule out as failing to exist, not as failing to generate complexity?
If the answer is a blank, the engineering work is not in the Hume move. It is in the wager, which is a terminal value the page says it is not deriving. What would fill the row: one named config, the thin commitment, and an existence-failure.